#033 - Building a Two-Way Bridge: Santos to Rotterdam

Hi

This is the last week of July. Under normal conditions, the harvest in Brazil would be almost finished by now. But 2026 was different: strong rainfalls delayed the harvest and affected overall quality while well capitalized producers delayed sales.

Meanwhile in Europe, inventory levels are low and many buyers are postponing orders while waiting for either the new harvest or coffee purchased at a lower price.

Personally, I don’t think this strategy will pay off. This dynamic has led trading volumes down while prices surged 30% just too quickly. Right now, the physical market is playing a bit of a game of chicken.

On a personal note, this was also our last week before moving to the Netherlands. From now on, Renato will be fully dedicated to sales and business development in Europe. Meanwhile, Andre will split time between sourcing in Brazil and sales in Europe.

Our vision for Meiero is to act as a two ways bridge between Brazilian coffee and the Dutch roasters and agritech ecosystem. The ultimate goal? Greater transparency and lower friction across the value chain.

This issue is a bit shorter than usual - we’re currently surrounded by packing boxes!

If you have partnership ideas or would like to request coffee samples, please reach out. We would love to connect.

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Weekly Highlights:

Coffee Futures KC Price in NY: -0.46% weekly, closing at 323.05 cents/lb.

Coffee Price in Brazil’s B3 in USD: -0.44% weekly, closing at 392.50 USD per 60kg bag.

BRL/USD fx rate: +0.23% weekly.

Proxy of 20’ container freight prices from Santos to Rotterdam: down ~2.5% weekly.

U.S. Tariff Policy Exemption Decision: U.S. Commerce officials confirmed that coffee will enter duty-free under new trade rules for natural resources not grown domestically, providing significant strategic cost relief to U.S. roasters and importers.

U.S. Specialty Coffee Consumer Habits: Specialty coffee intake maintained a record 47% daily market share among U.S. adults (surpassing regular coffee’s 42%), led by 69% of adults aged 25–39 drinking specialty coffee weekly.

Starbucks Strategic Turnaround Results: Starbucks reported a 7.9% increase in Q3 same-store sales and raised its FY2026 EPS outlook to $2.55–$2.65, citing strong execution on menu innovations (specifically cold beverages) and refined store real-estate selection.

Massimo Zanetti Private Equity Bids: Massimo Zanetti Beverage Group (owner of Segafredo Zanetti and Café do Ponto) received six private equity buyout offers valuing the company up to €1.2 billion ($1.3 billion) as founders consider a major divestment.

Fairtrade Minimum Price Regulation: Fairtrade International officially raised minimum baseline coffee prices effective December 2026 (+11% to $2.00/lb for Washed Arabica; +8% to $1.30/lb for Robusta) to protect smallholders from ongoing farmgate margin compression.

EUDR EU Traceability Compliance Rules: Kenya’s Agriculture Food Authority completed satellite geo-mapping for 30% of national coffee farmland as origin countries rush to meet EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) rules ahead of November deadlines.

Cold Brew Driving Chain Revenues: Caffè Nero reported a 56% surge in cold drink sales year-over-year, driving global Q4 revenue up 12% and confirming a permanent shift toward iced specialty beverages in Europe and North America.

Chagee Strategic Southeast Asia M&A: Asian beverage brand Chagee sold a 51% stake in its Thailand unit for $4.4 million to Thai President Beverage, leveraging local joint venture partners to build regional supply chain infrastructure.

Black Rock Coffee Bar IPO Filing: Rapidly growing U.S. drive-thru chain Black Rock Coffee Bar confidentially filed for a New York IPO targeting a valuation over $1 billion to fuel nation-wide store expansion.

USDA Global Production & Weather Risk Outlook: The USDA’s biannual report projected record 2026/27 global production (189.7 million bags) and consumption (179.7 million bags), though impending El Niño weather patterns threaten harvest flowering in Brazil.